So I was bored and saw a comment on a youtube video about Djoker having a sub standard year so I checked out his ATP match record for the season.
It is a bit deceptive. He has a pretty good W-L at 53-16 (a solid number of wins) and has won two ATP titles (Belgrade 250, Dubai 500). He has even been to the finals of seven events, including runner’s up at ATP1000 events Miami (l. Murray), Monte Carlo (l. Nadal), Rome (l. Nadal), Cincinnati (l. Federer), and ATP250 Halle (l. Haas).
HOWEVER:
1) Before Cincinnati this past week, he had not beat a player ranked higher than #25 (Fish at Wimbledon, 3rd Round) since APRIL when he beat Federer in the SF of Rome.
2) He had a 7-9 match record against players in the top 10 this season, while 3 of those wins have been against either Simon (2 wins) or Verdasco (1 win). He has a 4-7 record against Top 5 players on the season.
3) He has not beat the quickly improving Andy Roddick, the player right on his heels for World #4, in 3 meetings this season.
4) He has not beat either Roger, or Nadal, when they have been ranked #1 this season.
5) He hasn’t made it past the QF of a slam.
6) In his two tournament victories, he only beat one Top 10 player, Simon, then #8, at Dubai. The next highest were Ferrer, #14, and #19 Cilic.
7) He has admitted the mentally crushing match against Nadal in Madrid when he held several match points in the 3rd set tiebreak and ended up losing (when Nadal’s knees were basically locked up) destroyed his confidence. He was quoted as saying he was nervous of Haas in the Halle Final and Wimbledon QF.
He was nearly Bageled against Roger in the first set of the Cincinnati Final after not dropping a set all week.
9) He has a tough draw at the US Open (Roddick in his Quarter and Federer in his Semi), and he is defending a SF appearance. Also, since Grand Slam point allocations have been reduced this year for QF, SF and Finals, he must make the Final to avoid losing points (if he makes the SF, he will receive 720pts, so he will actually lose points).
So what’s the word? Djokovic has only 300 points to defend in Paris and Madrid in the two ATP1000 events following the Us Open. The Shanghai 1000 event is wide open since it is new. but the big point holder he has this season is his win at the Tennis Master’s Cup at the Year End Finals (1300pts). Given that Federer and Nadal will likely be healthy for the final this year, and Murray has played well all season, it is likely he will have more competition to defend that title.
Will Djokovic HOLD ONTO the #4 ranking, maybe supplant Nadal or Murray and move back into the Top 3, or will he lose his ranking to either Roddick, Del Potro, or somebody else?
And please, if you’re going to answer, support your opinion. Don’t just say because you like or hate the guy.
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- Solar Producer: Do You Think Rafael Nadal Will Be Better Than Federer? (6/1/2011)
- Solar Products: Did You Ever Wonder How The Chinese New Year (Year Of The Rat) Sunspots And Revelation 13 Connect? (8/24/2011)
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- CONSUMER REPORTS…usually about 1/2 to 1 year behind the bell curve…?
{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }
next yest would be better for him
yes it has indeed been rather disappointing for novak this year.
i think it will get slightly better from now for the rest of the year, but i still stand by my prediction that andy roddick is going to overtake him for the #4 ranking by the end of this year.
djokovic aint getting back into the top 3 anytime soon, not until he wins a big title, he has only won 2 small titles this year and did not face any of the other top 6 players at the time.
roddick has done better than djokovic in ALL of the grand slams this year, and as u say, roddick is a perfect 3-0 against him this year.
novak himself said that he was born in the wrong era, he acknowledges that roger, rafa and murray are all better than him, it must suck big time for him right now, murray was a player he once owned, now it is the other way around, and to add more salt to the wound, murray is now #2, something djokovic has had so many chances to achieve, but couldnt achieve it.
djokovic just needs to do well in that period between just after the us open and also just before the World Tour Finals, he needs to use that period to rack up as many points as possible.
by the way, i think at the end of this year, i think the rankings will be as such:
1 federer
2 nadal
3 murray
4 roddick
5 djokovic
6 del potro
I personally think it will get worse
As a former grand slam champion, defending tennis masters cup champion, four time masters series titles winner & as a former member of “Big Three”, I totally agree that 2009 is a disappointing year for Djokovic. Failed to reach beyond the quarterfinals in any of the grand slam, failed to win at least one masters series titles after reaching four finals and only won 2 small events, doesn’t live up to Djokovic standard.
But there’s still something to cheer about Djokovic performance this year. He is the co-leader in matches wins (53 – tie with Murray). One of the most consistent player on tour as he has reached quarterfinals or better in 14 of 16 events he played. And there’s another amazing record which he has reached quarterfinals or better in all seven masters series event this year, the record only beaten by Nadal.
But in order to stay in the top four, he needs to to do more than that as the top three this year is almost untouchable with Federer back to his form, Murray is on a hot streak and Nadal with high points and little points to defend at the end of the year. With Roddick and Del Potro not far behind and has more than 2000 points to defend for the next three months, chances for Djokovic to move back to top 3 this year are slim.
The more realistic thing to do right now for Djokovic is to stay in the top 4 as much as possible to have advantages in seeding as well as draw for next year Grand Slam and other important event. He needs to at least defend his status as semifinalist of U.S Open this year as well as grab as much points a possible and have better results than both Roddick and Del Potro at the ShangHai masters and Paris masters in order to cover the points that he might loss at the year end masters cup as he is the defending champion. He must not loss in the early stage of the masters cup to avoid being catch up by Roddick and Del Potro as both has not much points to defend at the event.
Overall, I would say the chances of Djokovic of staying in the top four this year are slim as he has too many points to defend plus his opponent has little points to defend. My prediction would be Djokovic will finished as world no.5 in the world this year, Roddick will overtake as world no.4.
But I strongly believe, after victory over Nadal at the Cincinnati,
Djokovic had slowly rebuilt his confidence. He’ll fully recover from the loss to Nadal at the Madrid Masters at the end of the season or maybe latest by early next season and have a shot at grand slam and other big tournament again. Coz as one of few players who has great results at all four grand slams and all surfaces as well as only age 22. I strongly believe there still have many left in Djokovic’s tank.