What is the likelihood that solar panel technology will improve drastically in the near future such that current solar panel technology will be completely obsolete before 10 years time?
The reason for my question is as follows:
I’m thinking about buying 10kw microfit solar panels for my home, but they cost a whopping $ 20k+ Canadian dollars. If I connect to the power grid and sell back to the government, they pay me 80 cents per kwh, which means the system pays for itself after 10 years. I feel that 10 years before ROI is a long time unless advances in solar technology have tapered off, which means buying today’s solar panels would cost the same as buying solar panels 10 years from now.
More Pages:
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- Solar Turbines: What Are Your Thoughts On Solar Power Technology? (5/4/2011)
- Solar Power: How Much Does Wind Power And Solar Power Cost? (5/2/2011)
- Solar Power: How Does Solar Power Genertors Work? (4/29/2011)
{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
Looking at the price-history of solar panels, I would estimate that the price per KW in 5 years will be approximately one-half of today’s cost, due to the production efficiencies of increased manufacturing volume.
Of course, the government incentive for panels purchased 5 years from now, may very well be 40 cents per kwh, to maintain the 10-year payback period.
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My friend installed 18 months ago a 7Kw (of 33 Sharp panels) system for $ 43K USD ($ 50K Canadian?). Don’t feel bad about long payback. He is 68 and won’t see the return, probably. And he is prevented from selling back power to the grid, as it is a corporation, not government owned. They don’t want his excess power at any price. And even though he has minimal electric usage (nights and clouds), he is still charged the distribution fee and a minimum usage fee every month.
Future panel tech may lead to “printed” panels of exotic inks rather than “grown” crystal ones. That might cut the cost per Kw to 10% of today’s.